PROPHET (PRioritizing the Observation of gravitational wave PHenomena jointly with Electromagnetic Transients) is a pipeline designed to optimize electromagnetic (EM) follow-up of gravitational-wave (GW) events from compact binary coalescences (CBCs), such as binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star–black hole (NSBH) mergers. It integrates GW parameter estimation with models of electromagnetic counterparts—primarily gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), kilonovae (KNe), and afterglows—to guide and prioritize follow-up observations across a range of instruments.
Key Features
GW-Informed EM Emission Modeling
Uses full gravitational-wave parameter estimation results (e.g., source masses, inclination, distance) to infer the likelihood and brightness of associated EM signals. This includes modeling GRB afterglows and kilonova light curves based on astrophysical priors and viewing geometry.
Sky-Resolved Brightness Predictions
Generates predictions of EM brightness and peak times across the GW sky localization map. For each position, PROPHET estimates the observability of kilonovae and afterglows, helping observers determine where and when to look.
Multi-Component EM Counterparts
Accounts for both prompt and delayed EM components, including:
- GRB afterglows (on- and off-axis)
- Kilonova emission from radioactive ejecta
- Synchrotron afterglows across multiple wavelengths
Observation Strategy Optimization
Helps identify the best follow-up strategy based on instrument capabilities, such as field of view (FOV), sensitivity, and cadence. It supports both wide-field surveys (e.g., Rubin Observatory) and narrow-field instruments (e.g., Swift XRT).
Integration with Real-Time Alerts
Designed to work with low-latency GW alerts, PROPHET can produce prioritized observing recommendations shortly after a trigger, supporting time-critical follow-up in the first hours to days after a merger.
Compatibility with External Catalogs
Can be combined with galaxy catalogs or GRB detector localizations (e.g., Fermi GBM) to refine the EM follow-up regions and increase the chances of counterpart identification.
Use Case
PROPHET’s main application is in the planning and coordination of EM follow-up campaigns triggered by GW events. It allows astronomers to:
- Predict EM signal brightness and timing for a given GW event.
- Prioritize sky regions with the highest probability of detectable EM emission.
- Tailor follow-up observations to the capabilities of specific instruments.
- Improve resource allocation for telescopes with limited time or small FOVs.
By linking GW information with EM models, PROPHET helps bridge theoretical expectations and observational constraints, enhancing the efficiency and scientific return of multi-messenger astronomy.
Link: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024eas..conf..705R/abstract